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Ryanair, a fragile complex giant

Jacek Marczyk (Ontonixqcm)by
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Jacek Marczyk explains why ''Too Big To Fail'' no longer works. Today it is ''Too Complex to Survive''.
The laws of systemantics are said to be pseudo-science. Fair enough. A few of these laws are listed below. They apply to highly complex systems. Think of these laws and then think of the EU, the Euro or, most recently, Ryanair.
  1. Le Chatelier’s Principle: Complex systems tend to oppose their own proper function. As systems grow in complexity, they tend to oppose their stated function.
  2. A complex system cannot be “made” to work. It either works or it doesn’t.
  3. A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that works.
  4. A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over, beginning with a working simple system.
  5. The Functional Indeterminacy Theorem (F.I.T.): In complex systems, malfunction and even total non-function may not be detectable for long periods, if ever.
  6. The Fundamental Failure-Mode Theorem (F.F.T.): Complex systems usually operate in failure mode.
  7. A complex system can fail in an infinite number of ways. One is pilot shortage.
  8. The larger the system, the greater the probability of unexpected failure.
  9. As systems grow in size, they tend to lose basic functions.
  10. Colossal systems foster colossal errors.

Ryanair has cancelled thousands of flights because of pilot shortage

So much for planning, risk management, huge IT investments, Big Data, etc., etc. It is the infantile linear and flat thinking that induces many people to imagine that Big Data, AI and other old technologies will miraculously solve problems inherent to high and uncontrolled growth of complexity, the greatest impediment of sustainable development.

Excessive complexity makes things fragile. Recall the Principle of Fragility:

Complexity X Uncertainty = Fragility

What this means is that a highly complex, or excessively articulated business, will experience high fragility (low resilience) in an uncertain/turbulent economy. Sounds familiar?

Dear Ryanair, instead of using old and outdated technology to manage your business, reach out for something a bit more modern, a bit more cutting edge: Quantitative Complexity Management. Oh, and remember, Too Big To Fail no longer works. Today it is Too Complex to Survive.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR – Jacek Marczyk, author of nine books on uncertainty and complexity management, has developed in 2003 the Quantitative Complexity Theory (QCT), Quantitative Complexity Management (QCM) methodologies and a new complexity-based theory of risk and rating. In 2005 he founded Ontonix, a company delivering complexity-based early-warning solutions with particular emphasis on systemic aspects and turbulent economic regimes. He introduced the Global Financial Complexity and Resilience Indices in 2013. Since 2015 he is Executive Chairman of Singapore-based Universal Ratings. Read more publications by Jacek Marczyk

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Published by Jacek Marczyk (Ontonixqcm)

Established in 2005 in the USA, Ontonix is headquartered in Como, Italy, and develops the World’s first system which allows one to measure and manage complexity - the main enemy of modern businesses. Our award winning technology and exclusive services help our clients view strategy, business risk management and economic intelligence from a radically innovative perspective. In turbulent times conventional analytics and BI technology prove ineffective and it is necessary to turn to new methods. Our technology takes advantage of the recent developments in science and has been engineered to specifically treat turbulence and extreme events. We know how to identify the hidden sources of fragility in a business and how to make it more resilient. And how to prepare it for Black Swans. Based on the discovery that excessive complexity is the true source of exposure, we have devised a new theory of risk which is particularly suited for a turbulent global economy and which allows us to provide our clients with real-time early warnings of increased vulnerability and exposure. Our unusual software solutions, which integrate with ERP or Data Warehouse systems, deliver new and critical information on a business and its performance. Our intrinsic KPIs and business diagnosis tools provide management with strategic business and economic intelligence in a dynamic fashion. Ontonix offers a unique cloud-based business diagnosis and rating capability, which allows one to perform a real-time check of the complexity and resilience of a corporation. The on-line service generates intuitive Business Structure Maps which pinpoint the sources of criticality within a business. With the Internet as the backbone of this global service, our goal is to deliver objective ratings and complexity management to every corner of the economy, helping corporations cope better with our turbulent times.

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