- Le Chatelier’s Principle: Complex systems tend to oppose their own proper function. As systems grow in complexity, they tend to oppose their stated function.
- A complex system cannot be “made” to work. It either works or it doesn’t.
- A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that works.
- A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over, beginning with a working simple system.
- The Functional Indeterminacy Theorem (F.I.T.): In complex systems, malfunction and even total non-function may not be detectable for long periods, if ever.
- The Fundamental Failure-Mode Theorem (F.F.T.): Complex systems usually operate in failure mode.
- A complex system can fail in an infinite number of ways. One is pilot shortage.
- The larger the system, the greater the probability of unexpected failure.
- As systems grow in size, they tend to lose basic functions.
- Colossal systems foster colossal errors.
Ryanair has cancelled thousands of flights because of pilot shortage
So much for planning, risk management, huge IT investments, Big Data, etc., etc. It is the infantile linear and flat thinking that induces many people to imagine that Big Data, AI and other old technologies will miraculously solve problems inherent to high and uncontrolled growth of complexity, the greatest impediment of sustainable development.
Excessive complexity makes things fragile. Recall the Principle of Fragility:
Complexity X Uncertainty = Fragility
What this means is that a highly complex, or excessively articulated business, will experience high fragility (low resilience) in an uncertain/turbulent economy. Sounds familiar?
Dear Ryanair, instead of using old and outdated technology to manage your business, reach out for something a bit more modern, a bit more cutting edge: Quantitative Complexity Management. Oh, and remember, Too Big To Fail no longer works. Today it is Too Complex to Survive.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR – Jacek Marczyk, author of nine books on uncertainty and complexity management, has developed in 2003 the Quantitative Complexity Theory (QCT), Quantitative Complexity Management (QCM) methodologies and a new complexity-based theory of risk and rating. In 2005 he founded Ontonix, a company delivering complexity-based early-warning solutions with particular emphasis on systemic aspects and turbulent economic regimes. He introduced the Global Financial Complexity and Resilience Indices in 2013. Since 2015 he is Executive Chairman of Singapore-based Universal Ratings. Read more publications by Jacek Marczyk