In theory things look great for the Vietnamese payment card industry. Let’s see if this is confirmed by a systemic Resistance to Shocks analysis.
Cash remains king in Vietnam but credit card issuers are predicting an imminent boom in the card market with the number of Vietnamese cardholders potentially growing by 10 times the current number of nearly one million.
Nguyen Thu Ha, chairperson of the Vietnam Card Association under the Vietnam Banking Association, said from both the macro-economic and banking perspective, the domestic card market is considered very strong given the rising incomes among the country’s 82-million people, rapid economic growth and improving legal system.
Increasing tourist arrivals and the influx of money remitted home by overseas Vietnamese would also facilitate credit card growth, Ha said at a conference touting the potential for electronic payments in Hanoi last week.
Number of Domestic Debit cards
Number of International Debit cards
Number of Domestic Credit cards
Number of International Credit cards
Number of Domestic Prepaid cards
Number of International Prepaid cards
Number of Other Cards
Total Cards Revenue
Domestic Debit Card Revenue
International Debit Card Revenue
Domestic Credit Card Revenue
International Credit Card Revenue
Domestic Prepaid cards Revenue
International Prepaid cards Revenue
Other Cards Revenue
Total Card Payment Revenue
International Card payment revenue at card accepting units
International Card payment revenue at ATMs
Domestic Card payment revenue at card accepting units
Domestic Card payment revenue at ATMs
Number of ATM until 31/12/2015
Number of ATM until 31/12/2016
Number of POS 31/12/2015
Number of POS until 31/12/2016
Revenue spending at the Card Accepting Unit
Contract Payment Revenue
Other Domestic Cards Revenue
International Card Payment Revenue at Card Accepting Units
Online Payment of International Cards at Card Accepting Units
Domestic Card Payment Revenue at Card Accepting Units
Online Payment of Domestic Cards at Card Accepting Units
The corresponding Complexity Map is illustrated below:
The analysis reveals a very high Resistance to Shocks (RtS), namely 95.6%, which corresponds to a five-star rating. It is interesting to note that this situation hinges on the following parameters: number of ATM, cash withdrawals, number of international debit cards. Basically, the first four parameters are responsible for nearly 38% of the overall state of health of the system. Any policies aiming at improving or strengthening the payment card industry in Vietnam should target these parameters first.
It is also interesting to analyze the system of forty card issuing banks. The Complexity Map, based on the above data per bank, is illustrated below: